Innovation success by innovation quality – this is in short the answer to the question: what leads to the rare success, what to the predominant failure of complex innovations? To find the answer, we compared a group of successful innovations with a group of failed innovations in an exploratory meta-analysis.
We define innovations as successful if industries with high and stable concentration of vendors emerged from them. We define them as failed, if a huge one-time expense was lost. For the group comparison, a method of Statistical Engineering, we have
- defined innovation success as control variable with two characteristics „successful“ and „failed“,
- collected and studied case studies about successful and failed innovations,
- grouped ten successful innovations that represent the variety of complex innovations (typewriter, electric lighting, automotive, aircraft, photography, calculator, integrated circuits, mass storage, float glass, cracking of petroleum),
- then also ten failed innovations (Schneller Brüter/Fast Breeder, Transrapid, electromobility, stirling engine in vehicle, locomotive with coal dust, steam locomotive, hydraulic mining, Toll Collect, microwave oven, ebook)
- formulated a hypothesis of both business and technological actuating variables and their interactions,
- examined actuating variables and their interactions on different characteristics between the two groups,
- tested different characteristics for statistical significance with an error probability of 5%.
Seven actuating variables lead to success or failure of complex innovations:
- Technological value potential
- Socio-technical system compatibility
- Technological efficiency potential
- Problem transparency
- Problem solving
- Quality of the innovation system
We bundle these seven actuating variables into one success factor, the innovation quality. Another actuating variable, the degree of innovation, did not prove as significant.
Are you interested in further details or to exchange ideas for your business? Then please contact us.